But half an hour after the polling stations closed and with exit polls showing a positive result in their favour, it was the independence supporters who took to the streets with flags, fireworks and noisy celebrations.
By morning, the importance of the decision they had taken was beginning to sink in. “No” voters were, in the main, resigned to independence and prepared, it seemed, to make the most of it.
Like pieces of a jigsaw, the states of former Yugoslavia had clung together in various guises for over 80 years. But with Montenegro voting to go it alone, all the pieces had finally come apart.
The last time the people of Montenegro lived in an independent state the First World War raged in Europe, but memories are strong in this part of the world. In many ways Montenegro has been gradually becoming a de facto independent country over the last few years.
It spurned the Yugoslav (or Serbian) diner and officially adopted the Euro as its sole currency. It has its own President, its own prime minister, its own parliament and laws. Now the individual parliaments in Belgrade and Montenegro’s capital Podgorica must endorse last Sunday’s vote and begin negotiations for divorce. As the joint Serbia and Montenegro parliament has not met for a long time, its dissolution will be a formality, but lengthy discussions are predicted on issues like defence, foreign affairs, the navy (Serbia loses its last piece of coastline), students’ right to study and pensions.
In addition there will be the delicate process of trying to allay the fears of the 45 percent who voted against independence. Many of these will be the ethnic Serbs who still form a majority in much of the northern region near the border with Serbia.
The “no campaign” tried to drive home the message that unity with Serbia meant the whole region was stronger and that Serbs and Montenegrins were one and the same people. Placating these fears will be one of many challenges facing Montenegro’s charismatic premier Milo Dujanovic who led the referendum campaign from the front and staked his reputation on winning. If the process does not go smoothly, all the stories of his past links with Milosovic and allegations of corruption may resurface to haunt him.
By contrast, if he succeeds in taking his new nation forward into NATO, the UN, the Council of Europe and ultimately the European Union then his place in Montenegro’s history books is all but assured. To achieve these aims he will continue to rely on Europe’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana. It was Solana who set the higher than usual threshold of 55 percent in the referendum and now he will have to broker the negotiations between Dujanovic and his opposite number, Serbia’s less than happy premier, Vojislav Kostunica.
Although he initially disputed the result’s validity, it seems likely that Kostunica will be forced to accept the vote and make the best of it. As the leading socialist member in the European Parliament’s delegation and one of 3500 observers, I can confirm that the conduct of the referendum vote was unquestionably free and fair. In each polling place there were three members of the pro-union side and an equal number of supporters of independence, jointly administering the ballot.
And with an 88 percent turn out, it was evident that just about everyone who could do so took part. In the count that I observed, in a mountain village above Montenegro’s second city Niksic, only about four percent of voters chose not to answer the straight forward ”yes or no to independence” question and submitted blank papers.
The weeks ahead will be tricky, and whilst I fear that Montenegro may not achieve its ambition of EU membership along with Croatia in 2010, nevertheless with the immense potential of its splendid mountains and Adriatic coastline, coupled with the determination of its proud people, the future of Europe’s newest nation still looks bright and promising.
Robert Evans MEP
EU Observer to Montenegro Independence Referendum
